Alright Pharma Investors, today I have put together a brief cross comparison of efficacy statistics from the three competing obesity drug companies: Arena, Vivus, and Orexigen. Before I go any further I would like to point out that the data marked with a ** in the Orexigen portion of the analysis is from the “Intent to Treat Population,” which is a touchy measurement subject in Pharma analysis. There has been much debate about that measurement process because the technique is used to avoid potential drop outs and crossover effects and some say that it may not be representative of the facts. Orexigen has yet to release the data for the proportion of patients losing more than 10% that completed the trial.
I have posted the most up to date results from Arena’s two pivotal trials titled BLOOM and BLOSSOM for their revolutionary drug Lorcaserin and I have also posted the results from Vivus’ two pivotal trials for their hot weight loss drug Qnexa titled: OB-301and OB-302. Also included are Orexigen’s results from the COR-I and COR-II Phase III trials. All you investors and weight loss junkies out there can evaluate the efficacy of each drug to make the best decisions:
Arena’s Vivus’s Orexigen’s
Lorcaserin Qnexa Contrave
Blossom Bloom OB-301 OB-302 COR-I COR-II
Baseline BMI: 35.9 36.2 36 42.1 NA NA
Baseline Weight: 220 220 223 256 NA NA
Proportion
Losing More than 5%: 63.2% 66.4% 66% 84% 61.8% 75.8%
on Placebo 34.9% 32.1% 15% 26% 23.1% 21.7%
Proportion
Losing more than 10%: 35.1% 36.2% 41% 60% 24.6%** 39.2%**
on Placebo 16.1% 13.6% 7% 12% 7.4%** 15.7%**
Average Weight Loss % 7.9% 8.2% 9.2% 11.0% 8.1% 8.2%
on Placebo 3.9% 3.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.8% 1.5%
Average weight loss
in pounds 17 17.9 19.8 37 17.6 17.5
on placebo 8.7 7.4 3.3 6 4.1 3.4
I hope this information helps investors in these companies, I did not include safety data in this post because I thought that is better saved for the an entire post in itself.
All data can be found here:
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A claring difference within the data reported by Vivus – - that their Placebo data is significantly lower than Arena’s Placebo values/data.
Does that not warrant question? (Why such lower values, for Vivus? Are the Placebo’s used within their trials that significantly different, as well?)
Reviewing the data presented – it appears Vivus has a very slight statistical advantage, when compared to Arena. (Though Vivus’s low Placebo values bring concern.)
And it would appear that Arena has a slight favorable edge over Orexigen. (Though, again – I’m still puzzled with Vivus’s low Placebo values. Said data is so strikingly different – when compared with both Arena & Orexigen.)
I would investigate the Discountinue Rates of Lorcaserin compared to the others, it is looking pretty good.