This analysis focuses on what the share price and market share could be for Keryx’s Perifosine if it performs well in Phase III clinical trials for Colon cancer.

In this analysis I’ll cover the U.S. market only, it is much simpler to gauge the U.S. market share because we have actual statistics that are reliable. According to the American Cancer Society there were 106,100 new cases of colon cancer in the U.S. in 2009. And there were 49,920 deaths as a result of the disease (data here). We can safely assume a large portion of the patients that die are patients that would receive Perifosine as part of treatment in relapsed or refractory patients. Usually these two patient groups consist largely of the 49,920 deaths that will be seen each year. So it is safe to assume that some percentage would definetly receive Perifosine as therapy since the drug is currently being tested for that indication. Keep in mind though, that not all of 49,920 deaths will receive the drug.

So let’s say for arguments sake that 10% of the patients will be tried on Perifosine in the first year. Keep in mind that the adoption rate in the first year will be low until more doctors are convinced of the drugs ability to help patients. Also, keep in mind this is just an estimate, so feel free to disagree. With that in mind we have a patient population of:

49,920 x 10% = 4,992 patients that will receive perifosine

What would a reasonable price be for the drug?

This is a tough question because there are several standard treatments out there for colon cancer. In my opinion the best estimate could be made by drawing a price estimate based on managements decision in the last press release to compare the drugs to Erbitux and Avastin. I’ll use Erbitux in my estimate, but feel free to insert any number you feel comfortable with here. I’ll break it down by price per month. Recent news articles have pegged the price of Erbitux in Colon cancer patients at about $10,000 dollars a month, although the company disagrees with that estimate, most clinical researchers generally agree this is a fair pricing estimate.

Price per Month: $10,000

cont’d on next page

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